Monday, September 8, 2008

US Bail Out Sundays! FRED, FNM, AP wonders where the $ is coming from?

What is it with Sundays and last minute Finance Bailouts?

I think Wikipedia and Urban Dictionary will need a term pretty soon for Bailout Sundays where corporations that undertook unsuccessful gambles such as purchasing subprime mortgages in worthless areas supported by unsustainable income - get bought out and no one get hurt (at least, short term speaking).

The U.S. Treasury is expected to announce early Sunday afternoon details of a plan under which regulators will effectively take temporary control over government-sponsored mortgage investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The Treasury won't necessarily make a large injection of capital immediately into the ailing companies, which provide the bulk of funding for U.S. home mortgages. But people familiar with the plan said the Treasury will stand ready to provide capital as needed, depending how quickly losses deplete the companies' meager capital holdings.
Taken from Wall Street Journal, it's another move that's sure to leave longterm shareholders out in the dry.

If you're a fund manager with 10% of your fund or portfolio in Fannie, you probably want to start looking at the employment papers...

FNM is trading at $0.70, down from their 52 week high of $60 USD. That's almost 1/100, can you say ouch?

If there is little market confidence in U.S. financial institutions right now, maybe this is why: government bailouts of banks this year have left shareholders high and dry.

Before the Asian markets opened Monday, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson announced that his agency would bail out struggling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which together guarantee nearly $5 trillion in American mortgages but have a fraction of that amount in available capital. Fannie and Freddie combined, which own or guarantee roughly $5.2 trillion of U.S. home mortgages

What would you rather have, companies that have tangible and appreciating assets like gold and copper, or a bunch of paper telling you unemployed homeowners with negative home values (ie. mortgage value is higher than home prices) will pay you back higher than your GIC rates?

U.S. unemployment rate climbs to 4-year high in July

The unemployment rate in the United States rose to 5.7 per cent — a four-year high — as employers reduced payrolls by 51,000 jobs in July, the U.S. Labour Department said Friday.

Unemployment in June stood at 5.5 per cent.

The tumble in payrolls was not as bad as some economists had been expecting. Projections had pointed to a cut of 72,000 jobs in July
Speaking of having tangible assets in the ground, one of our favorites here, McEwan's largely owned Minera Ande's announced a surprisingly high resource calculation at Northern Argentina (think Chile - world's biggest copper producer) - Los Azules deposit.

To those who thought calling it a deposit was premature - think again.

11 billion pounds of Copper (Cu) inferred resource - 43-101 compliant.

Remember that junior we mention from time to time, TNR Gold Corp? Last we checked they have 25% back in on Los Azules... you think TNR would be trading higher than $0.20 a share eh?

Minera Andes's Los Azules at 922Mt of 0.55% Cu inferred

2008-09-08 10:56 ET - News Release

Mr. Allen Ambrose reports

MINERA ANDES ANNOUNCES A MINERAL RESOURCE ESTIMATE OF 922 MILLION TONNES OF 0.55% COPPER AT LOS AZULES

Minera Andes Inc. has provided the results of an independent resource estimate at the Los Azules copper deposit located in western San Juan province, Argentina. The inferred mineral resource, at a 0.35-per-cent total copper cut-off, is defined by an area approximately 3.7 kilometres by one kilometre in size and contains a high-grade, near-surface copper core in the north. This resource estimate will form the basis of an economic scoping study (NI 43-101 preliminary assessment) planned for completion at the end of the year. In addition, the mineralized copper target remains open to the north and at depth.

At a 0.35-per-cent total copper cut-off, the inferred resource at Los Azules is 922 million tonnes grading 0.55 per cent copper, containing 11.2 billion pounds of copper.

The mineral resource estimate at different copper cut-off grades is summarized in the attached table.

Renowned analyst newsletter writer David Coffin tells his suscribers to buy MAI and associated juniors around area. For TNR, it should only be a matter of time, the story is getting more and more real everyday... first deposits in the ground from JV's, and next they should be announcing Salto and Tapau results, not to mention Eureka (60 million tonnes Historic Reserve Gold!)

If you don't usually follow newsletter writers, for your reference the Coffin Brothers are one of the most followed and highly regarded analysts. One brother provides the finance background while the other checks in with unbiased geological review of the properties. Unpaid nor commissioned like so many other out there means very little biase towards advertisers on their website, and such.
With luck, Minera Andes will add production Copper to Los Azules soon, keep in mind this company made $9 million last quarter based on 49% operating profit from San Jose only. The junior tagging along for the ride TNR will see some interesting appreciation once cashflow comes in for Los Azules.

Needless to say, I would certainly keep both on your watchlist.

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