The market after a long weekend in the US

Welcome back! Hope everyone had a nice July 4th long weekend. Wasn't it nice early this morning when S&P and NASDAQ were up a bit on positive news?

I have to say, seeing headlines like "Dollar firms as oil drops" and "Oil barrages as dollar lowers" starts to concern me day after day. What's more frightening is the blatantly obvious prediction and reactionary calls that the journalists and analysts seem to take after these supposely objective editorial pieces.

Jim Sinclair and his experienced writers is a website I check in at least once a week. While they tend to be on the negative side - their experience, past records, and knowledge certainly gives them the right to be. Myself I am positive and optimistic on certain companies with solid fundamentals (ie. positive revenue and solid projects) and blue-sky potential (industry recognition, strong financier backings).

I quote Trader Dan, a frequent writer on JSMineset:

"Do you ever get the idea that you are watching the final stages of a cheap horror flick? To give you an idea how absurd the US markets have become and why their inexplicable movements are making jackasses out of wire service-quoted "analysts", check this out. The "experts" quoted said that the reason that the Dollar was higher in today's session was because CRUDE OIL WAS LOWER. Just a few stories above that one, another "expert" says that the reason Crude Oil was lower was because the DOLLAR WAS HIGHER!

Aren't you glad that such stunningly insightful, bold, daring and brilliant comments are available to help we lesser mortals understand the markets? I sure sleep better knowing that such wisdom resides in the world of market analysts! So, which one is it fellas? Is the dog wagging the tail or is the tail wagging the dog? Here’s a bit of advice to the pundits – I am obviously in the advice dispending mode today – “hey guys – if you don’t know why the markets are doing what they are doing just keep your mouths shut and save yourselves from looking like first class nitwits”."

I have to say, you must chuckle at the chicken and the egg dilemma. So which is it... did oil fall first or did dollar get stronger? Hindsight is certainly much easier, no? I, too, can say that back in 2004, Google (GOOG) was a great buy at $85!

While it's easy to point and criticize - one must realize that analysts are people too. There is only so many hours in the day they can be in connection with the markets and economy... when the market opens at 9am EST (6am PST)... they have to be ready to give a direction and face the consequences if their calls are right or wrong.

Heck, even Goldman Sachs lost money last quarter on majority of trading days... and they're one of the best!

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the securities firm that generates more trading revenue than any of its U.S. rivals, lost money on 20 days last quarter, more than the prior period, as the value of credit products fell.

The New York-based investment bank lost at least $100 million on nine trading days in the three months to May 30, compared with six days in the previous quarter, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission today. The firm lost money on 17 days during the first quarter. The days when Goldman earned more than $100 million by trading fell to 27 from 28, the filing showed.

If you're an investment banking private client paying CFAs with advanced degrees telling you to buy a certain stock through their in-house brokers (and paying a hefty 10-20% fee)... would you be happy with your portfolio dropping 20-30% over the last little while?

If not - it's time to do your own due dilligence. Part II tomorrow.